Look Who's Worried Now 谁在忧心忡忡

在最新一期的《财富》杂志上，Josh Quittner写了一篇深度文章，题为《谁在忧心忡忡》（Look Who's Worried Now ），在文中他指出Goolge对Facebook的忧虑日渐上升。他说，Facebook抢走了Google的人才，抢走了它的流量，而且Facebook的新平台正掀起一场新的互联网微观经济革命。

在上周的Web 2.0峰会期间，Goolge工程副总裁Jeff Huber宣称，平台大战已经结束，网络获胜。很 明显，Goolge并不会单独将Facebook视为对手，即使后者已拥有在整个互联网领域的影响力（虽然Goolge刚出台自己的Facebook应用 软件）。真正的问题在于：Facebook真能危及Google吗？如果答案是肯定，那么它是怎样威胁的呢，什么时候呢？

Google的社会野心

Goolge 也许并不害怕Facebook，但它已注意到社交应用的价值。Goolge 书签、Goolge笔记簿、Orkut，还有最近的Goolge社交地图（Social Maps）都是该公司的优先发展项目。Goolge的共同创始人Sergey Brin表示，如今Goolge已与将近20家的社交网络建立了联系。

为什么？有两个重要原因。首先，绝少有人会无视社交应用的病毒般的网络驱动力量。第二，Google的战略，Google的多元扩张已经深入到互联网的多个热门领域内，它有能力创建免费工具以支撑它的核心生意——广告。

事实上，在Facebook的大炒特炒的平台推出前很久，Google就制定了社会化战略。刚好如今Google正聚焦于社交网络，这并不意味着就是针对Facebook的防守策略。毫无疑问，对于今日的Facebook，Google依然可以安之若素，然而，对Google而言，Facebook的总量不过九牛一毛。这并非是批评性的，我在下面将会论证，Google并不可能会害怕Facebook。

Google和Facebook分处不同领域

从根本上讲，Google和Facebook代表两种截然不同的商业模式。 是的，它们都通过广告赚钱，但是Goolge是一个泛网络（web wide）技术，而Facebook是单一网络技术。在今年早期的一篇文章中，我们指出，由于Goolge的分布式特征，它将是一个无可估量的印钞机。我 们必须登录进去，才能对Facebook投以关注，但Goolge是无处不在的。

从时间上讲，比起网络搜索，人们会花更多时间在Facebook上是荒谬的。Facebook是一个悠闲之处，网络搜索也很让人轻松，而且往往更为管用。即使Facebook是一个平台，但它仍建立在垂直关系之上。任何形式的垂直关系都只是网络的一部分。另一方面，Google，却组建了覆盖整个互联网的天网。

Goolge仍然拥有最佳的搜索技术

也 许有人会说，Facebook能变成人们发现网络的起点。可至少在目前，这还遥不可及。Facebook就是一种社交工具，一种参与社交网络的入口，但并 非是发现其余网络的初始页。假设Facebook想试着迈向这一目标（这不太可能），他们得建立自己的搜索引擎或与其他人合作。

同时， Google仍然坐拥最佳的搜索技术。它的两个顶尖对手，雅虎和微软，正竭力试图赶上这家搜索领导者，但尚未有任何进展。Goolge的坚实领导地位来源 于较早的开端、优良的运算法则、出色的下部构造，还有惯性。人们习惯了使用Google作为他们的搜索工具，“googling ”已取代“搜索”（serching），作为在线寻找信息的动词。除非竞争对手能在搜索体验上做出重要飞跃，否则Google就是无可替代的。

把钱摆出来

轮 到Facebook向受众掘金，如广告、收费或卖产品之时，它就显得黔驴技穷了。第二种方式是不可行的。吹捧自身为伟大的免费平台之后，Facebook 就无法再向应用开发者收费。至于第三种，销售产品，到底能否带来实际收益尚不确定。Facebook并不会做成网店，它的平台又是非商业的。那么剩下的就 只有广告了。

对Facebook而言，唯一可行的模式是情境广告，但到目前为之，他们的成就并未给人留下深刻印象。我所看到的大部分广告都 是邀请去我去搭讪孤独的大学女生，但我的妻子是不会批准的。一个很严肃的问题是，什么广告可在Facebook上获得成功？产品？电影？电视节目？铁定有 很多可行的选择，但问题在于，如何有效营销它们？

一些证据显示，另一家社交网络站点Digg的用户们，比Goolge用户点击广告的频率要少三倍。其中一个原因是，人们是为特定事物而上Google的。当人们搜索之时，即使顶部结果是广告，只要它们具备相关性，他们也不会介意。于是人们就去点击。

另一方面，当人们去到像Facebook这样的社交网络站点时，他们是来社交的，很明显不是来寻找产品或信息的。去年底，我听到了一些有趣的事情，与Google的搜索结果相比，AdSense在重要转换方面缺乏效率。还是那个原因，身处非搜索站点的人们并非为寻找特定事物而来。

归根到底，除非Facebook可证明它的受众能为其生财，否则它将无法对Goolge构成威胁。

营销战

所 以，如果Goolge没什么好担心的，为何它会忧虑呢？一句话——谣言。Goolge是终极性的新兴酷儿，然而，一时之间，它并不愿意变成“冷门”技术公 司。直到Facebook面世，还没有任何一家公司可抢占Goolge的风头。到目前为止，Facebook并未能赚到什么钱，但他们已赚足眼球。 2007将会被铭记为Facebook之年（就像去年是YouTube之年，自然也是其代理人Google的年份）。

但Facebook要想将风头转化为金钱，那就不容易了。Google仍然是搜索领域的王者，它的股价每天都在刷新华尔街记录。它在简易性方面十分出色，在产品营销方面也表现优秀，而且它始终坚持免费软件理念。今年Facebook成功吸引了大量关注和炒作，但由于营销失灵，从长期来看，Goolge仍将屹立不倒。

倘 若Facebook想要赶超Goolge，它需要钞票。2.4亿美元的注入以及150亿美元的估值有助于Facebook将风头转化为一场风暴。但要想做 到那一点，除了要投入大量营销资金外，它还需要搞清楚该如何变成一家泛网络的公司，以及如何有效从用户那里赚钱。微软公司经验丰富的广告销售团队（可采用 新近收入旗下的Quantive）应当有能力帮助Facebook达成后者。

结论

Google并没有为Facebook而担忧，它担忧的是它自己的生意、它的未来和它的形象。没有论证可显示Facebook将构成实质性威胁。可能这只是Goolge的公关问题了。当然，Goolge会加强自身的社会化战略，但这仅因为此举极具意义，而非出自对其它公司的恐惧。对Facebook来说，最初的刺激已经消退，这家公司得证明它能赚钱。时间将告诉我们，Facebook到底值不值得大肆宣传，以及冒失的天价估值。

(译文版权所有，转载：署名-保持一致-非商业）copy Mind 2.0

Josh Quittner《谁在忧心忡忡》（Look Who's Worried Now ）

Look Who's Worried Now

JOSH QUITTNER; Additional reporting by Lindsay Blakely -- Fortune , October 29, 2007 U.S. Edition

GOOGLE IS THE ELEPHANT in nearly every corner of the Internet, from search and advertising to web-based e-mail, online mapping, and home-brewed video. With its share price setting new highs this fall, its market cap ($188 billion) is now large enough to buy the New York Times, the Washington Post, Gannett, and Time Warner twice. Or Facebook many, many times over.

The problem is, Facebook's not for sale. And that's got Google running scared. It's an open secret in Silicon Valley that the company has been shopping around a nondisclosure agreement outlining its plan to create its own massive social network and asking anyone with a pulse to sign it.

Google has to do something fast, because some of its best talent is starting to head for the exits. In July, Gideon Yu, finance chief at Google's YouTube, left for Facebook. Now other Google guys, stuck in the Googleplex and smelling a Facebook IPO that could turn early employees into early retirees, are also jumping ship. The latest defector: Benjamin Ling, the top engineer at Google Checkout, its online payment service. A Stanford comp-sci Ph.D., Ling will be overseeing Facebook's entire software platform. Losing finance types is one thing. But smart engineers are the lifeblood of a great tech company, and Ling was worth a pint, insiders say.

Facebook's threat to Google, of course, is bigger than a talent war. In fact, the stakes here are about as high as they get in the Internet business. Something is going on that we haven't seen since Microsoft challenged Netscape and helped define the wide-open web. Now the social networks are trying to do the opposite to build what I call the Innernet. It's the place you occupy with family and friends and where you exercise almost absolute control, showing the world only as much of your true self as you care to while protecting you and yours from the evil that lurks on the wider web, from spam artists to identity thieves. Whoever builds that walled garden stands to make the next great Internet fortune.

Facebook, until recently little more than a student hangout, is the odds-on favorite to win that race. In March founder Mark Zuckerberg opened the site to independent software developers, inviting them to write Facebook applications and reap a share of whatever revenue they generate. Because creating Facebook applets was so easy, programmers could throw lots of stuff at the wall and quickly see what stuck. Take, for example, Super Wall, a little app that lets users add text, photos, video, or drawings to one another's Facebook pages. It took a couple of developers part of a June weekend to write. Within three weeks, two million people were using it. Today, more than ten million do.

That's a real economy (or could be, if someone figured out how to make money from it), and it explains why Facebook has suddenly pulled out of the slipstream of MySpace, growing from 20 million active users in April to more than 45 million today. More cool apps mean more reasons for people to hang out there and more reasons for developers to launch new apps. Worst of all for Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin: They can't participate for privacy reasons Google's search engine is barred at Facebook's door like an unwanted encyclopedia salesman.

How does Google plan to fight back? It's gearing up to do for the web what Facebook did for its network, starting with its social networking site Orkut (which is big in Brazil) and extending it to Gmail, You Tube, iGoogle, and so on. Imagine Google as the command center for your entire social life; you could chat and read your e-mail there, give your closest friends access to your calendar, and get minute-by-minute updates on their whereabouts. All the big social networks were invited to join the new coalition even, presumably, Facebook. (No one from Facebook or Google would comment.)

Will it work? Google's effort, I'm told, is being led by Joe Kraus, the founder of Excite. Though he is as Web 2.0 savvy as they come, I think Google's plan may be too little too late. Everyone these days is opening up his network even MySpace. Besides, there's no compelling reason for users to leave Facebook now. The developers will stay as long as they can reach a mass audience there. Google's trying to fix something that isn't broken just as Microsoft has been doing for years with search and IBM tried to do with operating systems for PCs. Maybe Google should stick to organizing the world's information, and let this little mouse roar.

FEEDBACK josh_quittner@fortunemail.com

THE RACE IS ON TO BUILD THE BEST WALLED GARDEN WITHIN THE WILD, WILD WEB.